KC K26: 284.55 – 300.90
K26 / N26: 5.70 – 6.70
Market levels referenced in this update reflect conditions as of March 20, 2026.
No Trend is Still a Trend
Over the past month, coffee prices have held in a tight range, repeatedly testing resistance around 300 cts and bouncing off support just above 275 cts. While this week saw the market consolidate toward the upper end of that band, the overarching theme remains the same: the lack of a trend has become its own trend.
There’s a general sense that the market is waiting for something to provide direction. Everyone acknowledges a large upcoming Brazilian crop, expected to create the first surplus in roughly five years. Yet at the same time, anyone trying to source Brazils or milds knows that right now there is virtually no coffee available, at least none that current holders are willing to sell. As a result, differentials remain extremely firm.
Last week, much of the coffee world met in Tampa for the National Coffee Association’s annual convention. It was great to see continued growth in specialty participation and to reconnect with friends from around the globe. NCA has always been an important venue for understanding supply‑and‑demand perspectives, and this year stood out: rarely have we seen such alignment among industry voices. Whereas last year estimates for Brazil differed by 10–15 MM bags, this year most agreed on a range of 72–75 MM bags. At StoneX, our second crop survey led us to raise our estimate from 70 to 75 MM bags.