KC K26: 308.80 – 301.70
K26 / N26: 7.65 – 5.80
Market levels referenced in this update reflect conditions as of March 27, 2026.
No Coffee + No Oil = Direction
After several weeks of watching the market’s indecision, coffee finally seems to have found a bit of conviction. Not dramatic, but conviction nonetheless. Tight availability in destination warehouses, paired with the reality of how little coffee is available to ship from origin, has outweighed the talk of a large Brazilian crop. That coffee, after all, is still several months away from being available to roast. Add into the mix the ongoing conflict that has slowed oil shipments to a trickle, and prices have settled comfortably into the 300+ range.
From a technical standpoint, the market managed to settle above the 100‑day moving average on Wednesday, though it could not quite break through the 200‑day. That level now looks like the next real area of resistance with it lining up neatly with the 38% retracement from October’s highs to the February lows. It’s a level worth keeping an eye on.
Beyond NYC levels, we’re spending a lot of time thinking about what’s happening on the ground for producers, particularly as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues. While harvest is complete across much of the Northern Hemisphere, many producers are now shifting their focus to farm maintenance as they prepare for the 2027/28 crop cycle. The Strait isn’t just critical for oil; it’s also one of the most important conduits for fertilizer inputs like urea. If that flow remains constrained, producers will likely face higher input costs and decreased availability. The silver lining is that strong prices over the past few crops have given many producing partners the cash flow needed to make these investments, and that matters more than ever right now.