KC N26: 275.70 – 275.70
N26 / U26: 7.80 – 7.35
Market levels referenced in this update reflect conditions as of May 15, 2026.
Never a Dull Moment, El Nino and Ocean Freights Keep Things Spicy
Coffee prices stepped lower this week, breaking below the 280 to 300 cts range that held for the past six weeks. On Monday, July futures dipped under 270 cts for the first time in nine months. A weaker Brazilian currency likely played a role, alongside the market’s growing confidence in a large Brazilian crop. We briefly moved above the 20-day moving average midweek before fading back below that near-term indicator. Thursday close saw the market unchanged from Mondays open, and on the open this morning we are down another 8 cts.
While supply pressure is building, moving coffee out of Brazil is shaping up to be anything but straightforward. Imbalances in global trade flows, potential equipment shortages, port congestion, and rising freight rates are all pointing to increased risk of delays out of Santos.
