Guatemala’s 2024/2025 Coffee Crop: Navigating Challenges and Declining Production
Guatemala’s 2024/2025 Coffee Crop: Navigating Challenges and Declining Production
By: Camila Topke | Specialty Coffee Sales Executive
Guatemala has long been synonymous with high-quality arabica coffee, which dominates the country's coffee industry, accounting for 99% of total coffee production. However, the 2024/2025 coffee crop faces significant challenges that have reduced yield. Despite these hurdles, the resilience of Guatemalan coffee farmers shines through. Several key factors have contributed to this decrease, including unfavorable weather conditions, rising production costs, labor shortages, and the ongoing battle with coffee leaf rust disease. These elements have combined to create an environment where coffee farmers struggle to maintain production levels, with forecasts indicating a notable decline in yield compared to previous years.
Impact of Flowering Delays Due to Drought
One of the primary factors impacting this year's coffee crop in Guatemala is the delayed flowering, a crucial stage in coffee production. The timing of flowering is critical for the quantity and quality of the harvest. The later the flowers bloom, the less time the plants have to produce coffee cherries before the end of the growing season. As a result, a delay in flowering often translates to a reduced harvest, directly affecting the crop yield for that year. For Guatemala's coffee farmers, the late flowering in 2024 means a smaller crop for the 2024/2025 season.
Rising Production Costs
In addition to the flowering delay, Guatemala's coffee farmers struggle with rising production costs. One of the most significant contributors to these increased costs is the rise in fertilizer prices. Fertilizers are essential for maintaining healthy coffee plants. Still, the escalating costs have placed a heavy burden on farmers, particularly smallholders who may not have the financial resources to absorb these higher expenses. With limited access to affordable fertilizers, farmers find it more challenging to nurture their coffee crops to their full potential, further exacerbating the decline in production.
Labor Shortages Driven by Migration
Another significant challenge facing the Guatemalan coffee industry is a labor shortage. This shortage, driven by a growing migration trend to the United States for better economic opportunities, has resulted in fewer workers to help with harvesting. The impact of this shortage is felt keenly in many coffee-producing regions in Guatemala, where the harvest is a crucial and labor-intensive part of the coffee production process.
The Persistent Threat of Coffee Leaf Rust Disease
Guatemala's coffee industry is also contending with coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease that has plagued coffee crops in Central America for nearly a decade. Coffee leaf rust, also known as 'roya,' weakens coffee plants by infecting their leaves, causing them to drop prematurely. As a result, the affected plants cannot photosynthesize effectively, leading to reduced growth and, ultimately, lower yields.
Market Dynamics: Rising Prices, Falling Differentials
While the global coffee market has seen price increases, this has not been accompanied by a rise in differentials. When market prices rise, differentials tend to decrease, which means that the price premiums that Guatemalan coffee typically commands are not as high as expected.
In summary, Guatemala's 2024/2025 coffee crop faces many challenges, reducing harvest. Delayed flowering due to drought, rising production costs, labor shortages, and coffee leaf rust disease have all combined to decrease the volume of coffee produced this year. For Guatemalan farmers, these difficulties represent a significant struggle to maintain their livelihoods and keep up with the demands of the global coffee market. As forecasts point to a lower production volume than in previous years, the coffee industry in Guatemala will need to find ways to adapt to these changing conditions to ensure its long-term sustainability.
Connect with our team to learn how we can support you through your green coffee buying process during these challenging times
