StoneX Thought Leadership: How Tariffs and Weather Are Reshaping Global Coffee Trade

Albert Scalla, StoneX Vice President of Trading, and Gerra Harrigan, StoneX Senior Sales Executive, discuss how volatility, tariffs and weather are reshaping the global coffee market.

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs and weather are driving volatility across global coffee markets
• Specialty buyers are adjusting sourcing strategies amid shortages
• Risk management and market intelligence remain critical tools

Volatility in Commercial Coffee Markets

Scalla highlighted that recent years have brought unprecedented volatility to coffee, with tariffs, droughts, freezes and freight costs reshaping procurement. He explained that inverted markets have added further strain, forcing commercial players to rethink how they buy, deliver and carry inventories.

Specialty Coffee Buyers Under Pressure

Harrigan described how specialty roasters are grappling with shortages, particularly from Brazil, and the need to explore alternative origins and blends. She noted that many new entrants to the specialty market are uncertain how to respond to persistently high prices, requiring guidance on risk-aware buying strategies.

Tariffs and Political Uncertainty

Both speakers addressed the heavy impact of tariffs on Brazil, which accounts for a significant share of U.S. coffee imports. Scalla pointed to U.S. policy uncertainty, noting that exemptions could ease prices while tighter restrictions could trigger another rally. Harrigan added that some roasters are even exploring lower-tariff origins such as Vietnam.

Risk Management and Adaptation

Scalla stressed the importance of financial instruments, options and insurance mechanisms to help clients mitigate risk. Harrigan emphasized the role of StoneX in bridging commercial and specialty knowledge, urging roasters to stay engaged with traders and leverage intelligence to adapt to changing market conditions.

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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer

--- Expert: Albert Scalla, StoneX Senior VP of Trading for Coffee, Cocoa, and Palm Oil

--- Expert: Gerra Harrigan, StoneX Senior Sales Executive

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