June Coffee Market Update
While things began heating up in June for the Northern Hemisphere, Brazil entered into the start of their winter season, and in typical fashion, already has the coffee market on edge.
Heavier than usual rainfall curbed the pace of the coffee harvest, which, according to StoneX surveys, is approximately 54% completed as of June 30th, based on our forecast of total production of 64.5 million bags.
Throughout the month, Brazil also experienced dropping temperatures and isolated incidence of frost. Observations from our ongoing field survey show that some low-lying areas were hit by frost earlier in June, and damage to the newly planted fields was confirmed. Leaf drop will be more intense than usual due to the adverse weather conditions, which will certainly impact the 2026 harvest. Fortunately, the high humidity helped prevent more serious damage.
As the country gets further into the colder months, a close eye will be kept on dropping temperatures, as the newly developing crop will be extremely vulnerable to frost.
The USDA released their biannual World Coffee Report which pegged global production for the 2025-2026 coffee crop year at 178.7 million bags. Consumption was forecast at 169.4 million bags, leaving a supply surplus of 9.3 million bags. While their figures used to be incredibly highly regarded by the industry, many players are starting to question the accuracy of their forecasts. According to their numbers, the market has experienced a global supply surplus for three consecutive years, yet during that same time, ending stocks have remained flat. So where is all that coffee? Additionally, if we had such ample supplies, why did prices rally to record highs earlier in the year? Concerningly, our industry, notorious for its lack of transparency, is seemingly losing trusted sources, access to accurate data and the ability to properly assess our balance sheet. And as we all know all too well, more unknowns will drive more volatility.
In an effort to shed some much-needed light on global supply and demand, StoneX has overhauled their annual forecast report, collecting exclusive data, implementing new formulas and updating methods to provide the industry with one of the most comprehensive, insightful and accurate estimates to date. The report will be available on July 10th and will be the first of many additional reports that aim to raise the bar for the global coffee sector’s analysis.
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